Who wins a debt ceiling showdown?

It’s early yet; Republicans in the House have another two months or so before they have to get serious about whether to raise the nation’s debt ceiling or let the government begin defaulting on its obligations. It could be a decisive moment for new House Speaker John Boehner.

The last time Republicans had a showdown over a budgetary issue was in 1995, and it didn’t end well for them. President Clinton vetoed the Republican spending bill and much of the government shut down for a few days. Clinton emerged with a higher-than-ever approval rating. Republicans stayed in power for many years, but they lost a lot of momentum for the reforms they touted in winning control in 1994.
How would a similar showdown play today? Would the GOP look irresponsible, or would the Democrats be the ones who look like they just want to keep spending more and more into infinity?
It depends. If the GOP wants to be taken seriously, it needs a credible overall plan for reform that narrows the budget deficit and sets the nation on a long-term course toward fiscal responsibility. I haven’t seen that yet. The only thing that comes close is the controversial plan a majority of the president’s deficit commission proposed last year.
Absent such a plan, Republicans will appear irresponsible if they simply stand on principle and let the government default. This story on politico.com shows it’s hard to tell right now which course the party will take.
Given the campaign rhetoric of 2010, it may be hard for many of them to vote yes on expanding debt without looking as if they went to Washington and, like so many before them, became part of the problem.