Take a look at Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball web site. Larry is director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. He has been predicting elections since 1978 and tends to be among the more accurate in that field.
This time, he sees a bigger Republican win nationwide than many have been predicting. That goes along with the angle of this Deseret News story. Sabato predicts the GOP will pick up 55 House seats, which is much more than in previous prognostications.
In the Senate, he sees Republicans gaining 8 seats. They need 10 to take a majority. Sabato doesn’t think this will happen, but he notes the GOP could do so by scoring upsets in two of four states, Connecticut, California, Washington or West Virginia.
Regarding the Senate, take a look at this graph on Realclearpolitics.com. Look at the recent trend line between Sharron Angle and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid. Angle appears to be shooting upward, while Reid is shooting downward.
We’re heading into the last big weekend before the election, which is when trends begin to mean something. Judging by the data, I tend to agree with Sabato that Republicans will fall short of winning a Senate majority. But the GOP seems to be surging.
What are your predictions on national and local races?