2010 election: How big will Republicans win?

Take a look at Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball web site. Larry is director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. He has been predicting elections since 1978 and tends to be among the more accurate in that field.

This time, he sees a bigger Republican win nationwide than many have been predicting. That goes along with the angle of this Deseret News story. Sabato predicts the GOP will pick up 55 House seats, which is much more than in previous prognostications.
In the Senate, he sees Republicans gaining 8 seats. They need 10 to take a majority. Sabato doesn’t think this will happen, but he notes the GOP could do so by scoring upsets in two of four states, Connecticut, California, Washington or West Virginia.
Regarding the Senate, take a look at this graph on Realclearpolitics.com. Look at the recent trend line between Sharron Angle and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid. Angle appears to be shooting upward, while Reid is shooting downward.
We’re heading into the last big weekend before the election, which is when trends begin to mean something. Judging by the data, I tend to agree with Sabato that Republicans will fall short of winning a Senate majority. But the GOP seems to be surging.
What are your predictions on national and local races?

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About the Author

Jay Evensen

Jay Evensen is the Senior Editorial Columnist for the Deseret News. He has 32 years of journalism experience covering politics and a variety of other assignments at news organizations ranging from United Press International in New York City to the Las Vegas Review-Journal and the Deseret News, where he has worked since 1986. During that time, he has won numerous local, regional and national awards. Most recently, he was given the Cameron Duncan Media Award, given annually in Washington, D.C., by the advocacy group RESULTS, to the journalist judged to have done the most to further the cause of the world's poorest people.

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